Diplomacy Is Not Always The Answer
By
Leonard Zwelling
If you listen to the President of the United States or his Secretary of State, you might believe that the current crisis in the Middle East is amenable to a diplomatic solution. We have been hearing that one is right around the corner for months now. It is not although the reported death of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, may change things.
This piece from The New York Times by Roger Cohen on September 30 outlines the case that I have been making for some time now.
Diplomacy requires willing partners on opposite sides of an issue to come to a peaceful solution to the problem. The only party at all interested in a diplomatic solution to the war in Gaza or the one in southern Lebanon is the United States. Russia and China are enjoying the benefits to their own aggression of this chaos far from their shores. Hamas, under Sinwar, would wait out the Israeli pursuit of its annihilation even if it costs thousands of Palestinian lives. Hezbollah is reeling from the effectiveness of the Israeli strikes on its leadership and the fear of an Israeli invasion. Iran cannot be too aggressive itself for fear of a full-throated Israeli attack on its soil to end the proxy wars in the ring of fire around Israel. The latest Iranian rocket attack on Israel may well trigger a far more aggressive Israeli response.
What is likely is that Israel is about to have its way with southern Lebanon and drive Iran’s influence from the area so that 60,000 Israelis can safely return home to northern Israel. The Israelis will come home on the back of an all-out attack on Hezbollah while it is weak, not due to a new round of diplomacy.
There are times when a diplomatic solution can be had. Israel’s peace with Egypt and its peace with Jordan are two examples. That is not the case now.
Israel has shown itself to be willing and able to level Gaza in retaliation for the killing of its citizens by Hamas. If Hamas would surrender and free the hostages, a diplomatic solution is possible. Hamas has shown no interest in doing this, so Israel fights on.
Hezbollah could have been safe in southern Lebanon, but it chose to join the post-October 7 fray by attacking Israel on October 8. Now it has paid the price. Its leadership is gone. Israel is not likely to stop now if it can clear Lebanon of Iran’s influence and return the country to its own people with whom a diplomatic solution is possible.
Finally, Israel, with its killing of the Hezbollah and Hamas leadership, has put Iran on notice. Israel has had enough of Iranian proxy attacks on its people and territory. If Iran wants to fight Israel with these surrogates, don’t be surprised if Israel goes for the jugular and now that Iran itself attacked Israel, the United States may be drawn into a real shooting war that will not end until Iran is destroyed. Furthermore, if Mr. Trump is elected, Iran may well have a great deal to worry about.
Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris return over and over again to the language of a diplomatic solution. It’s too late for that. The Iranians have tried to chip away at the Jewish state it has pledged to destroy. Iran may have to be the latest country to learn that Israel will not back down.
If the United States wants to use diplomacy, cut off all funds to Iran and demand it stop its program of uranium enrichment in exchange for a commitment not to attack. If Iran will not go for this diplomacy, well, send in the U.S. Navy and Air Force.
