The Heart Of The Deal

The Heart Of The Deal

By

Leonard Zwelling

This is my take. This is just my opinion. I have no confidence in being right. I hope I am not, but…

There is jubilation in Gaza and Tel Aviv as the deal to release the hostages, living and dead, and begin a cease fire, has been announced. By the end of today, all of the hostages should be free and back home in Israel. There is still some doubt as to whether Hamas really has control of each and every hostage and body so this may already be wishful thinking, The cease fire went into place on Friday. Israel has kept its end of the bargain.

All of this is good news. But, is it really only a solution to a short-term problem? Here’s what really remains in the longer term and will determine whether Mr. Trump really created a deal that will garner him next year’s Nobel Peace Prize.

We Jews have been battered around for about 3000 or so years now, so it would be wise if we don’t get too cocky about a successful outcome to the turmoil that has seized the land of Israel for the entirety of its 77 years of existence as a sovereign entity. Remember, there has never been a ”Palestine” as a sovereign entity. Peace is not at hand, BECAUSE the Palestinian Arabs don’t have a country. They have a cause, but no country.

It is not clear to me how Israel can eliminate the idea of Hamas. Even if it killed every last Hamas fighter, the idea of a Palestinian homeland that stretches from “the river to the sea” and the elimination of all Jews from the world is not one that Hamas can let go of, nor can Israelis accept, obviously. And neither should it be an idea that any Jew anywhere accepts. We are not going quietly. Never again.

Even if Hamas is gone from Gaza, the idea of a Palestinian state in the current land of Israel free of Jews is just not going to evaporate from the minds of Palestinian Arabs everywhere and their American supporters. Since that is the idea of Hamas, Iran, and many other Arab groups, Israel is likely to still be at war for the foreseeable future. The intensity of the conflict waxes and wanes, but will it ever end?

It really remains to be seen whether any of the other Arab states will contribute to the rehabilitation of Gaza, the governance of the strip in the near future, and serve as a check on extremism and violence in Gaza and in the West Bank. They never have. Why should I believe they will now? Maybe Jared Kushner can get this done. Maybe. Trust but verify.

The West Bank is still there even as Gaza has been turned to rubble. There are several million Arabs living in disputed land to Israel’s east in addition to the two million to the west. How does that get resolved? Who will govern these Arabs in Gaza or in the West Bank? Will the current Israeli government even allow there to be another Arab state on its border given the potential for that state to launch another October 7-like raid? Would the United States tolerate a Mexico that is likely to invade Texas at any time? Would it help in creating such an entity?

Jews around the world should remember the many times the Arabs living in what is known as Palestine, a name that has never been on any map as a country, have had an opportunity to have such a country and have dropped the ball—the Oslo Accords, the Clinton arranged deal in 2000 are just two.

I think that it is great that the hostages have been freed and that the killing in Gaza has stopped—for now. But if the other Arab states do not step up with their oil money to provide stability in Gaza in exchange for peace in the region, free trade with Israel, and true access to the benefits of a security alliance with the United States, particularly against a potentially nuclear-armed Iran, none of this small stuff will matter.

That’s my take. In short, Jews be grateful we have a place to go to as anti-Semitism is on the rise everywhere. Israel lives, but this is nowhere near over. We are inching toward the starting line.

And, Jews, while we are celebrating and we express gratitude, beware, in the end we are always on our own. Remember, you don’t make peace deals with your friends.

Having been to the West Bank several times and met with Arab merchants and other Arabs there, I believe that most “Palestinians” do want peace. I saw this almost come to fruition in 1998 and 1999 when we sailed across the green line into the West Bank and Arabs crossed the other way going to work in Israel. It was good for everyone. Then came Arafat’s refusal to sign a deal with Ehud Barak in 2000 and then came the Second Intifada.

It is now up to the Israeli right wing government and some representative of the Palestinian Arabs (?who?) to go to stage two. I am very doubtful. Sorry. But this was a good start, but not much more and a good start does not get you a Nobel Prize. Of course, Barack Obama got one for doing nothing, so who knows?