Is Sinwar’s Death The End Of the Beginning?

Is Sinwar’s Death The End Of The Beginning?

By

Leonard Zwelling

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/18/opinion/yahya-sinwar-hamas-death.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/opinion/israel-hamas-war.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/18/world/middleeast/israel-military-sinwar-killing.html

Whether the death of Hamas leader Yayah Sinwar alters the landscape in Gaza and the rest of the Middle East has become a popular source of editorial speculation (see above from Bret Stephens, Tom Friedman, and Patrick Kingsley in The New York Times on October 18).

There is one line of reasoning that the primary impediment to a cease fire and a hostage release is now gone, but that may be very naïve thinking. Usually, these violent terrorist groups have many leaders waiting in the wings to take the place of one who has fallen. Nonetheless, the Israelis keep on killing them if they can, just as they did after the 1972 massacre of Israeli Olympic athletes in Munich. It is in the Israeli character to exert strength sufficient to convince the Arabs that Israel is not going anywhere.

As many of these op-ed pieces opine, it may be up to the Saudis to lead the way out of the morass that is now Gaza and the circle of fire around Israel.

What needs to happen?

First, a cease fire needs to be negotiated. For the most part, this is up to Hamas and to Netanyahu. I say Netanyahu and not Israel because most Israelis want this to end and want the hostages back. As a reader has written to me, the soldiers are tired and Israel wants to get back to normal. Most of Israel wants a cease fire. It is only Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition that is blocking this now. The right in Israel still wants to resettle and eventually annex Gaza. This is a really bad idea.

Second, the hostages, living and dead, need to come home. Israel may have to free a number of Palestinian prisoners for this to occur. It should, but that number should be no more than two for one of the LIVING Israelis freed and it should be predominantly Palestinian woman, if possible. Sinwar himself was a freed Israeli prisoner in a previous deal. That mistake should not be repeated.

The Saudis need to step up with money to rebuild Gaza and persuasion to assign new leadership to the Palestinian Authority so that at some point in the future a process toward a two-state solution can begin. Gaza has the potential to be a fabulous resort spot with new hotels that could generate thousands of jobs for the residents. Heck, everyone could make money—even Israeli investors. Gaza may be decimated now, but it can be rebuilt to be even better.

Hezbollah is still a problem and a real Lebanese government still seems far away. However, peace on Israel’s northern border should be a goal of any negotiated settlement involving the U.S., NATO, and the Sunni Gulf states.

The leverage here is that the Saudis want that security agreement with the U.S. and to become part of the Abraham Accord structure with Israel. This is the lynch pin of any deal. The Saudis must rise to the occasion and become hands-on players in the process to eliminate the influence of Iran from this part of the world.

None of this will make Iran happy. The Iranians may view peace in the Middle East as a threat to its influence and choose to accelerate its nuclear program. The United States has to take a very public position that it will never allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons and will use all means necessary to prevent this including armed military attacks on Iranian ships and nuclear facilities.

Yes, this could be the end of the beginning. Or, it could be just a continuation. This is largely in the hands of Bibi Netanyahu. If he allows his coalition to own him as he has so far, this war goes on, the hostages will die, and there will be no relief for the Palestinians in Gaza. If Netanyahu decides his place in history is more important than his premiership, he will rise to the occasion. Admittedly, he has never done that before. His major concern has always been self-preservation. He may even go to jail should he finally relent and give up power and maybe that needs to be part of the deal. Have the Israeli Supreme Court grant him immunity for past crimes if he will just vacate the premises.

Hey. I can hope.