EXTRA: Where Can Bernie
Win? Where Can The Donald Lose? Nevada, South Carolina and Beyond
The results from Nevada were in early and Hillary Clinton
significantly beat Bernie Sanders 52 to 48%. What this means is that in a
fairly good-sized state of real diversity, Senator Sanders, despite his clear
message and great ground game (lots of volunteers), could not overtake the
frontrunner. He probably cannot do it in South Carolina on February 27 nor in Texas,
Virginia, Georgia and other southern states. These too will be challenges for
the Sanders campaign. It is not likely that he can pull this off. Today may
well go down in the record books as the day Hillary stopped feeling the
intensity of the Bern.
It is very likely that Mrs. Clinton will be the nominee of
the Democratic party and we can spend the rest of the late winter watching the
Republicans duke it out which may mean we are down to three very soon, Trump,
Cruz and Rubio. Kasich is going to run
out of money, Bush out of family and Carson out of credibility.
Mr. Sanders has done Mrs. Clinton a great service in being
her sparring partner and sharpening her debate skills. Now if she can just stay
out of jail, I suspect that she will be on the ballot in November.
South Carolina has not clarified the GOP muddle. Trump is
still winning but only with a plurality stuck at about 1/3 of the votes cast.
That means his opposition has a majority. BUT, if you add Cruz and Trump together
you have a majority that overwhelms the combined totals of the so-called
mainstream “Establishment” Republicans, Bush, Rubio and Kasich. Carson is an after thought at
this point and I just learned that Bush is suspending his run.
The GOP is in the process of ripping itself apart deciding
whether the Trump-Cruz wing can restore the Reagan Revolution or does the Rubio
crowd represent the true future of conservatism. To be blunt, I have no idea.
In the play All The
Way, the fact that Lyndon Johnson’s push for civil rights legislation gave
way to the Republican Southern strategy of Nixon and lost the south for the
Dems for over a generation is emphasized. So fittingly, the future of the GOP
may well be forged in the South on Super Tuesday and beyond. Texas will really
matter especially if Cruz does not win here. This is likely to go on for a
while longer until the GOP can coalesce behind its rambunctious rebellious wing
of Trump or Cruz or its more traditional wing most represented by Rubio, Bush (not)
The Dems may have wrapped things up. The GOP is not yet
close to an end game. But it is easy to see that the races between Clinton and
either Trump or Cruz or Rubio would all be quite different from each other except for the
common facet of being fascinating.
I had hoped the Bern could find a way to stay in for a while
and he probably will given his large war chest, but I think he cannot overcome
the Clinton juggernaut.
What is evident is that this silly season has made clear
that the country is not made up of two parties, but of four, two traditional
(Rubio and Clinton) and two angry (Sanders and Trump/Cruz). It is now likely
that at least one of the two parties will have a traditional candidate. If the
other picks an angry guy to represent it, the people of America are going to
have a heck of a choice to make.