The Case Against A Deal
By
Leonard Zwelling
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/opinion/israel-hostages-gaza.html
Bret Stephens makes the case succinctly in The New York Times on September 3. If Netanyahu cuts the deal that Hamas will sign on to, it is likely that another war will transpire in the near future as Hamas will rearm and attack Israel again.
If Israel wants its approximately 60 to 90 hostages back, Israel must vacate Gaza according to Hamas. If Israel vacates the Philadelphi Corridor in southern Gaza, on the border with Egypt, Hamas will continue to arm itself under that border and October 7 will be repeated as soon as Hamas is rearmed and regrown. This cannot be allowed to occur.
It is also true that a previous hostage deal for captured Israel soldier Gilead Shalit led to the release of 1000 Palestinian prisoners including the current military leader of Hamas who formulated the attack of October 7. Just as land for peace didn’t work in 2000 because Arafat turned it down, hostages for peace hasn’t worked since. It is sad, but Israel may not be able to budge in this deal without a guarantee that Hamas does not grow and that Hamas cannot be the governing body of Gaza. Who can guarantee that?
So, it will be necessary for an international body like the United Nations, or better, an Arab country like Saudi Arabia, to take over the governance of Gaza and that Israel be allowed to leave troops on the southern Gaza border to prevent Hamas from rearming. This deal seems unlikely to occur. Thus, the fighting will continue, the situation on the northern border of Israel with Lebanon will worsen, and the hostages will remain captive.
Furthermore, to increase the pressure on Israel, Hamas is killing captive hostages when Israeli forces close in on them.
It is not only that Netanyahu will lose his coalition and maybe go to jail should he cave in to the deal, but Israel as a country might be worse off if Hamas gains anything from its raid on October 7.
Emotionally, this is trying for the families of the hostages, but leaders sometimes have to take the broader view and absorb the brunt of hostility. What cannot occur is the strengthening of Hamas by allowing it to continue its rule of Gaza. Unfortunately, the Palestinian Authority is too weak and too corrupt to take over the governance of Gaza. Now is the time for the other Gulf States to use their oil wealth to take control of and rebuild Gaza.
Let’s also remember who the real instigator of all this is—Iran.
It is my belief that a hot war between Iran and Israel is inevitable. That also means the next American administration will have some tough decisions to make with regard to its involvement in this ineluctable conflict.
The world is an interconnected place. Mr. Biden has been working overtime in an effort to prevent the Gaza War from spreading to the entire region. But as he works in one direction, Iran works in the other. Iran wants constant turmoil in the region while keeping its hands clean of direct conflict. That time may be ending as Iran’s surrogates in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen cause havoc in the region. How long will the world tolerate Iranian mischief? How long will Iranian troops sit on the sideline now that Israel assassinated a Hamas leader in Tehran?
Russia is raising hell in Ukraine.
China is poised to the same in Taiwan.
Personally, I would like to hear a little bit of discussion in this presidential campaign about how Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris would handle these international issues.
There is not likely to be a cease fire or hostage exchange in Gaza under the current leadership of Israel or Hamas for the above reasons. A new idea is needed. Who’s got one?
