Half-Baked Alaska
By
Leonard Zwelling
(I really did title this before Bret Stephens used a similar one in The New York Times on the same day)
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/trump-putin-meeting-russia-goals-327d4d4c
Today, President Donald Trump will meet with President Putin of Russia at an Air Force base in Alaska. The subject will undoubtedly be Ukraine. Other topics could include mutually beneficial trade and resource development, but Ukraine is the main topic. As of this writing on Tuesday, August 12, President Zelensky of Ukraine is not invited to the meeting that may determine the fate of his country. That seems rude to me. He may yet get a seat at the table.
If any of the news stories are to be believed (see above from The Wall Street Journal of August 12), President Trump needs to meet Putin face-to-face to truly assess the Russian’s intentions and whether there is a deal to be made for a cease fire and a peaceful resolution to the on-going hostilities. Trump says he needs to look Putin in the eye and that he will know within two minutes whether there is a deal to be had. Trump has hinted that land swaps would be involved. I wonder how Trump would feel if a third party were discussing the return of Manhattan including his land holdings to the Indians in exchange for the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation in South Dakota, home of the Oglala Lakota Nation. In fact, as long as they are in Alaska, perhaps Putin and Trump can renegotiate our 1867 deal with Russia for Alaska. Maybe we can get Ukraine if we give Putin back our 49th state.
It is the opinion of this blog that this is more of Trump’s naivete combined with his foolishness and hubris. He thinks he is as tough as a seasoned Russian KGB chief. He is not. Putin will not move an inch. He will demand even more of Ukraine than he has already taken going back to 2014 when he took Crimea on President Obama’s watch. Putin is not going to give anything back. By the way, Netanyahu is not going to give back anything seized in the Middle East since 1967 including what the Israelis have taken in Area C of the West Bank (the settlements). And, by the way, Trump is not going to give back the very land he and Putin will be standing on that the U.S. bought in 1867 for $7.2M. Seward’s Folly (William H. Seward was Secretary of State when we bought Alaska from the Russians) has paid off handsomely for the United States given the price of 2 cents per acre.
Putin thinks all of Ukraine belongs to Russia. Thus, he is not going to give back the 20% he has already taken. The only way Trump can stop the Russian slaughter is by defeating Putin on the battlefield. That would be very expensive to do without American boots on the ground and frankly Trump would not risk Americans dying for Ukrainians. Furthermore, where is the rest of Europe in all of this? They NATO and European Union allies are not at the table and not in uniform either. Alternatively, Trump may give Putin everything he already took in exchange for a cease fire. That will lapse after 60 days and Putin will go right on fighting. He wants 100%.
This is a silly visit. The only meaningful meeting would be one involving all the interested parties where all of them want a peaceful end to the war. That would mean Europe and Ukraine need to be at the table. But Putin does not want peace. He wants the Soviet Union reconstituted. He’s invested heavily in blood and treasure in this war and he intends to win it. The only way he’s going to stop shooting is if he gets to keep everything he has taken and start negotiations for all the rest. Trump cannot acquiesce to that so this is probably a fruitless meeting for the good guys and a show of plumage for Putin.
Mr. Trump fancies himself a great negotiator. He surely is not doing well with Democrats nor does he seem to care to bargain with them. His claim that he could bring the Ukraine war to a close in a day was never taken seriously. The situation in Gaza is completely out of hand and that one he could end by cutting Netanyahu off from weapons leaving him vulnerable to his neighbors and to Iran. The U.S. needs to force an end to the humanitarian suffering in Gaza and demand its Arab allies get Hamas the hell out of Gaza or they too will have no more American protection.
If Trump wants to swing his big stick around, he should do so constructively and mean it. So far, he has not positively affected either major crisis facing the free world. He has alienated China and India, the two most populous nations on Earth. China is grabbing up influence in Africa and the Europeans still will not take ownership of their own safety. Taiwan is as vulnerable as it has ever been.
I do not see that Donald Trump has made the world a safer place. I am not even sure he has made Washington, D.C. a safer place.
My prediction is this lengthy flight to Alaska by both presidents will be a waste of time for Trump. Heck, at least it’s nice there in August.
