An Early Moment Of Truth
By
Leonard Zwelling
Perhaps we should not have been surprised that a moment of truth has arisen so early in the Trump presidency. The President loves controversy and chaos, both of which generate critical decision points.
The reality of the situation, as I see it, is that the Republicans have a clear leader, Donald Trump, and the Democrats do not although many are starting to make noise like they ought to be the leader—J.B. Pritzker, Cory Booker, and AOC are among those vying for the Democratic leadership crown.
But, here is the thing. The MAGA movement, which appears to be a major philosophic and nationalistic shift from the traditional GOP positions on almost everything, depends completely on one man, Donald Trump. The people elected Trump, not his MAGA agenda. They trusted him to deliver on border security (he certainly has done that) and the economy (not yet). It is that latter area in which there is some doubt about Trump’s ability to: decrease inflation, preserve or lower unemployment, and really bring manufacturing back to the United States.
Mr. Trump has selected tariffs as the means to stimulate economic growth in the United States, but we live in a globalized world with long supply chains needed to hold down prices on the large number of imported goods to the U.S. Tariffs will tend to isolate the United States from global trade. The moment of truth is: can this tariff idea work? Is the United States to determine the economy of the rest of the world or is it going to be a civil participant in a globalized world?
In the short term, the answer to tariffs working has been, no. The markets have been unhappy both with the tariffs and the on-again, off-again nature of the Trump implementation of these duties on imported goods.
But will all of this chaos really lead to a more prosperous America, with new manufacturing plants, and more jobs for the non-college educated? Not a chance.
Tom Friedman has been writing for weeks about how the Trump/MAGA agenda promoting fossil fuel drilling (oil) and mining (coal), opposing electric vehicles, and taking an anti-science stance is exactly the opposite of what the United States ought to be doing. In other words, Trump’s leadership and the GOP’s followership may be leading the United States to second class status among the world’s economies.
This is also a moment of truth for the Democrats. They too are fighting an internal battle just as the MAGA Republicans are succeeding in displacing traditional Republican values. Are the Democrats going to roll out a hyper-liberal agenda led by AOC as an answer to MAGA? Or, will the Democrats learn the lesson of Bill Clinton in 1992 and find the ”third way,” a middle path of economic prosperity, strong national defense, regaining the world’s respect, and reflecting on the success of Clinton’s having built a bridge to the 21st century.
Trump was wise to deal with the border and illegal immigration early in his term. He gets kudos for that. He said he would do it, and he did.
His use of tariffs as an economic weapon against friend and foe alike appears to have been significant overreach. In addition, the two wars he inherited which he said he could help resolve, rage on. He has managed to alienate some of our closest friends like Canada. To what end?
Trump has to face what he has done well and what he was done poorly. Border security has gone well. Most people can understand the deportation of illegal aliens. They cannot, however, understand doing so without due process. In his rush to deport, Trump has made critical errors.
The same can be said of his use of Elon Musk and Musk’s taking a chain saw to the federal bureaucracy. Many people depend on that bureaucracy and all federal bureaucrats are not evil, lazy, or ignorant. In Musk’s haste to make good on a Trump promise, it is Musk who appears evil, lazy, and stupid in his lack of consideration for the good many of those fired have done and an unwillingness to pursue the need for a surgical approach to cutting government spending.
Over the next few months, the long, hard road of governing will be traveled by the Trump team. But it all depends on Trump himself. Despite his talk of a third term, he might consider identifying someone else who could lead MAGA-America, because despite what he may think, he is going to die. Will MAGA die with him? Is Trump MAGA and without him there is no MAGA?
Across the aisle, the Democrats are in complete disarray. Within the Congress they are likely to remain so unless a real leader emerges. Far more likely is that leader arising from a governor’s mansion in Illinois, Kentucky, or Pennsylvania.
The thing to watch is the success or failure of the Trump agenda and the degree to which the members of the House run on that agenda in 2026 or whether, by then, MAGA is no longer fashionable and members of the GOP House caucus choose to run from it rather than on it.
There will be further moments of truth along the way for both parties. Let’s see who makes the best decisions.
