The Choice
By
Leonard Zwelling
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/harris-and-trump-lose-momentum-election-2024-race-ce32ca4e
The moment of truth is close upon us. It is less than three weeks away.
Each of us is going to have to decide whether or not he or she will vote for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. No fair voting third party or not voting for President. You have to choose.
Rarely in my lifetime has the choice for President been more dismal.
This blog has written about the damage that another Trump presidency might do to the country. I have also made it quite clear that the means by which Kamala Harris became the nominee of the Democrats was both illegitimate and never before seen in our history since nominees stopped emerging from smoke-filled rooms. She competed against no one for the nomination. She assumed the mantle of her boss with his blessing and without the support of anyone at all. On top of the misguided novelty of her ascension, she has been a lousy candidate. She will commit to no major deviations from the plans of her boss and even hides behind him now. This is a terrible strategy choice.
Daniel Henninger (above) makes it clear that neither candidate has been able to pull ahead of the other in the various polls. No one is quite sure how accurate these polls are. Harris may actually have additional strength from women and young people undetected by the polls. Trump may draw more votes from those who won’t admit their choice to pollsters. No one is quite sure.
I have already voted—by mail. I will tell you later for whom and why. I will also try to predict the winner.
Mr. Trump’s likely directions if elected represent major shifts from the policies of Mr. Biden. It is likely that Mr. Trump will put tariffs on many imported goods which will raise prices here and possibly start another round of inflation. He will surely weaponize the Department of Justice and use it to chase those he considers his enemies. He may well try to lock them up. He will appoint more traditionalist judges. He will try to politicize the executive branch of government by firing the many career civil servants he views as opposed to him. He will likely try to cut a deal with Putin that may result in a Russified Ukraine with more of Europe in Putin’s sights. We will have a different country under Trump. I have no idea whether or not it will be better. I doubt it. However, I do believe that Mr. Trump will try to do what he said he will.
By contrast, it is likely that Harris will bring us more of the same as Biden. That means no solutions to the crises in Ukraine or Israel. No major increase to the Department of Defense. Taxes will increase for those making over $400,000. Greater corporate tax rates are likely. And who can tell what influence the extreme left element of her party will have on her policies. It’s scary.
But, as I said, you have to choose.
I voted for Harris for a few simple reasons.
I think Donald Trump is too old to be president and I cannot imagine President Vance would be good for the country should Trump become incapacitated. Given Trump’s age and probable list of health issues, this has to be a factor. The GOP stance on abortion is simply untenable to me. Doctors need to care for their patients free from the interference by politicians. I think what Trump would do to the government in a second term would change the country forever and not in a good way as I outline above. Finally, I really don’t think he is as smart, as rich, or as tough as he pretends to be. I think Putin will roll him on January 21, 2025 if given the chance.
All that being said, I have very little confidence in Ms. Harris. My only hope is that she has been close enough to power for the past three years or so to have learned something and that she is smart enough to learn more just as Jack Kennedy did after the Bay of Pigs.
As I say, this is a terrible choice. Trump represents the worst of America. Harris—well, who knows? I’d rather bet on her than more of him. My normal bet is a nickel. This bet is for the future of the United States.
That brings me to my prediction for the result of the 2024 presidential election.
My son Andrew adheres to the 13 keys of Allan J. Lichtman about which I have written. Thus, he believes that Kamala Harris will win by a narrow Electoral College margin. Andrew thinks the Blue Wall will hold and Harris will take Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by narrow margins.
Unfortunately, while I respect the Lichtman model and love my son, I fear neither will be predictive this time. I am picking Trump to win and significantly.
Why?
Two reasons.
First, for most Americans there is only one significant issue—the economy. People still experience the economy as not good because prices at the grocery store and gas pump are still higher than they used to be during the Trump presidency.
Second, Harris has really not given anyone a reason to vote for her. She has not separated herself from the unpopular Biden policies and has not articulated a clear vision for a better America under her leadership. As a mixed race (I’m sorry but this is an issue for many Americans) woman she needed to be extra special to win. She has not been extra special. In fact, she has been pretty lackluster. She simply hasn’t closed the deal.
Thus, sadly, I am picking Trump to win. Anyone willing to bet a nickel?
