Beep, Beep, Boom: The Middle East Becomes Even Less Stable
By
Leonard Zwelling
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/opinion/trump-harris-foreign-policy.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/opinion/kamala-harris-election.html
In all the concern about dog-eating Haitians in Springfield, Ohio and exactly how to patrol the southern border, some minimal attention ought to be placed upon foreign affairs in this election season even though it has been shown to have little effect on how people vote.
We are in the middle of two wars that, while not involving U.S. personnel, surely involve millions of U.S. dollars. There appears to be no chance that either conflict will end soon. Russia cannot lose face by losing to Ukraine and will do anything to make sure that does not occur. It is in the interest of the United States that Putin gains no more territory as he gears up for an assault on NATO.
But even more vexing, despite many people on the many sides of the Middle East war in Gaza wanting a cease fire, is the fact that the principals appear bent on fighting to the last man. Israel cannot allow Hamas to gain anything from its actions on October 7. Hamas appears to be all in and will not leave Gaza.
The Hamas war has also been complicated by the associated Hezbollah war in the north of Israel with rockets being launched as far as Tel Aviv and thousands of Israelis forced to flee from their northern Israel homes, too close to the Lebanese border.
As Tom Friedman points out in the first article above, the combatants in the Middle East are not even countries but Iranian proxies that have overwhelmed whatever legitimate governments remain in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen. Now, in a startling achievement of clandestine destruction, Israel has managed to detonate thousands of communication devices within the midst of Hezbollah in Lebanon killing at least 21 over two days and wounding hundreds. It seems at first blush that Israel was able to sabotage pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah by inserting explosives into them before their delivery and then detonating them en masse. Now this is true terrorism. As a talking head said on Fox today, Hezbollah operatives may be afraid to use their toasters.
So, which of the two presidential candidates is the most likely to make progress in the field of foreign relations?
Friedman believes that if Ms. Harris follows the policies of the Biden Administration to try to build alliances among our allies, she will be more successful than Mr. Trump who tends to browbeat and alienate our allies.
The second piece by Bret Stephens makes the case that Harris hasn’t sealed the deal for him yet. He wants more detailed answers to policy questions from her. Here too, Mr. Stephens brings up the Middle East. “If, as president, she had intelligence that Iran was on the cusp of assembling a nuclear weapon, would she use force to stop it?…Would she push for the creation of a Palestinian state if Hamas remained a potent political force within it?”
Foreign affairs seem rarely to be part of the presidential contests, but this year events abroad could overtake us and a clear vision for American participation in Ukraine and the Middle East ought to be part of the platforms of both parties.
Israel is stepping up the contest with Hezbollah and sees no end to the war in Gaza. The current State Department seems unable to make any progress despite the clear desire among the population of Israel for a cease fire and return of the remaining hostages.
What would Ms. Harris do differently? What would Mr. Trump do?
I am in awe of the Israeli achievement in counter-terrorism aimed at Hezbollah. However, this is likely to escalate tensions. If either candidate has a plan to get to a cease fire and get the hostages home, now might be a good time to unveil it. Exploding beepers will not get them home soon enough
