Lichtman’s 13 Keys: What Might Have Been
By
Leonard Zwelling
(Most of this blog was written before President Biden dropped out of the race. It may still be relevant if Vice President Harris is the nominee.)
https://www.socialstudies.org/system/files/2024-02/se-8801006.pdf
The article above is five pages you really ought to read.
It is from Social Education, January/February 2024 by Allan J. Lichtman, Distinguished Professor of History at American University. It was sent to me by son Andrew who has been touting Professor Lichtman’s methodology of predicting the outcome of presidential elections to me for a few months now.
The premise of the methodology is rather simple. The system is all based on historical precedent. Lichtman has been right 10 out of the last 11 elections. He missed Bush v. Gore where the Supreme Court won.
Dr. Lichtman has identified 13 “Keys to the White House.” These are quantifiable (and qualitative) measures of the performance of the incumbent administration that have historically picked the winner 10 out of the last 11 times including Mr. Trump’s win in 2016.
Here they are with the current status of the Biden White House’s re-election bid. Most of the key answers would still be applicable if Harris is the nominee.
Key 1: Party Mandate: the incumbent party increased its number of House seats in the previous mid-term elections. FALSE for Biden.
Key 2: Contest: There is no contest within the incumbent’s party. TRUE, so far.
Key 3: Incumbency: The incumbent is the sitting president. TRUE. No longer.
Key 4: Third Party: No significant third- party candidate. This is probably TRUE. Bobby Kennedy Jr. is fading.
Key 5: Short-term economy: Absence of recession. TRUE.
Key 6: Long-term economy: Real growth better than in previous presidential term. Probably TRUE.
Key 7: Policy change: Major changes effected by current administration. TRUE.
Key 8: Social unrest: No sustained unrest. TRUE.
Key 9: Scandal: Absence of scandal. Probably TRUE. Hunter Biden is not in the administration and nothing has been hung on his father yet.
Key 10: Foreign/military failure: Administration suffered no major failure. Probably FALSE but these are not major defeats–Afghanistan, Ukraine, Gaza.
Key 11: Foreign/military success: FALSE. This could change if Biden could get a Gaza deal.
Key 12: Incumbent charisma: FALSE. Even with Harris.
Key 13: Challenger charisma. Challenger NOT charismatic. TRUE. “There were many Reagan Democrats, but virtually no Trump Democrats.”
I get 9 TRUE and 4 FALSE and Biden (or Harris) needs 5 FALSE or fewer to win. With Harris this may be slimmer, but she could still win. Now, this could change, but the conclusion from this model is that Biden should not have quit the race and that he likely would have won.
This goes against everything I feel, but that’s the purpose of Lichtman’s model—eliminate emotion from prognostication.
His basic point that can be found on a number of podcasts and YouTube videos he has recorded is that “the Keys are a historical-based index system for predicting the results of American presidential elections that have been successful since 1984.” It is all based on the “strength and performance of the party holding the White House.”
As a corollary, Lichtman writes, “debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage, and campaign strategies—the usual grist for punditry mills—count for virtually nothing on Election Day.” In other words, the talking heads on MSNBC, CNN, and Fox know nothing. Ditto The New York Times editorial board.
This is antithetical to everything I have written up to now and has given me great pause. My son is accusing me of being too emotional in my assessment of the likely outcome of the election. He has even bet on Biden with me for a steak dinner. (This bet is off now.)
The best predictor of the future of any system is the past behavior of the system. If this is true, these keys may well contain great wisdom. Their importance now is that everything may shift now that the Democrats dumped Biden.
As Lichtman said on a recent podcast, “Republicans have no principles and Democrats have no spines.”
If Lichtman is the smart money a la Moneyball and The Big Short, Biden surely shouldn’t quit and the Dems shouldn’t get rid of him. If…
Now what happens?
